Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng confirmed a ‘permanent’ stamp duty cut in the mini-Budget announcement on Friday. But the reality is that more changes are likely if the conservatives fail to win the next general election, scheduled to take place in 2024.
New polling suggests that Labour is currently on course to win a majority of 56 in the next election.
The polling is from Savanta ComRes. And, significantly, the 56-seat majority projection is based on an MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) analysis.
MRP involves polling the public and then trying to project what that would mean on a seat-by-seat basis by taking the polling data for particularly demographic groups and cross-referencing that against the demographic profile of every constituency in Britain.
The MRP model, conducted in conjunction with Electoral Calculus, shows Labour (45%) with a 12pt lead over the Conservatives (33%) in Great Britain, generating a commanding majority if such a result were to play out at the next election.
A new Labour government would almost certainly lead to more major tax changes, with party leader yesterday pledging to keep the 19% basic rate but reinstate 45% top rate of income tax.
Stamp duty could also see further changes if Rachel Reeves’ comments after last Fridays mini-Budget announcement are anything to go by.
Reeves, Labour’s shadow chancellor of the exchequer, said: “It’s going to take much more than a stamp duty cut to get our economy back on track and home ownership back to the levels last seen under the Labour government.
“These stamp duty changes have been tried before.
“Last time they did it, a third of the people who benefited were buying a second or third home, or a buy to let property.
“Is that really the best use of taxpayers money when borrowing and debt are already so high?
“And can the Chancellor confirm how much of his stamp duty cut will go to those purchasing multiple properties?
“Instead of a stamp duty rates going up and down like a yo-yo, we’ve got to get building.
“We need to target support at first time buyers and tackle the issue of homes being sold to overseas investors.”
